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Ashford Area Strategic Transport Model

Client: Ashford Borough Council and Kent County Council
Date: 2004

Working in conjunction with RPS Transport Planning the objective of this project was to build a strategic transport model for use in planning land use in the Ashford area. Ashford has been identified as an area for rapid potential growth and the model was to ascertain where the best location for this growth would be and to assess what the best transportation solution would be to the increase in transport usage.

PDC built the model using Visual-tm, the multi modal modelling software. The model incorporated over 100 zones and investigated the potential of improving existing modes such as bus alongside introducing new modes such as LRT and guided bus.

Initially matrices were built from RSI sites along with other data sources such as the Census. Assignment, mode choice and distribution models were calibrated. The model was used to forecast up to 2031.

Over 40 different land use scenarios have been tested using the model and an optimum solution has been chosen.

Merseytram Project

Client: Keolis Ltd
Date: 2004

This project was undertaken on behalf of Keolis Ltd. A public transport operator who were bidding for the franchise of running the Merseytram light rapid transit system in Liverpool. Our brief was to build a demand model which was suitable for forecasting the prospective demand for the service in Liverpool, to predict the amount of revenue which would be generated by the new system. The outputs from our modelling work were to be used for completion of the Best And Final Offer (BAFO) document which Keolis had to present to government as part of their bid.

Our work involved converting an existing Trips model of supply and a spreadsheet demand model into a Visual-tm demand model. This was done successfully and results from the two models were compared. Forecasts of demand were then ran for a variety of different service levels and projected forecasts were output.

This project was successfully completed in late 2004. The Keolis bid is currently being taken forward towards construction.

Cheltenham and Gloucester Regional Spatial Strategy Study

Client: Gloucestershire County Council
Date: Aug - Oct 2004

Peter Davidson Consultancy were appointed to develop a multi-modal strategic model and to use it to test a number of spatial options for the future development of the Cheltenham and Gloucester area. The model was constructed using the company’s Visual-tm software, and also made use of the Census Matrix Tools software developed by PDC on behalf of the Department for Transport. The results of the model were used as inputs to the Regional Spatial Strategy for the South West.

The entire project spanned a period of three months, including matrix building, model building, all scenario forecasts, comparison of land use options and the production of the final report. It used a land use transportation model covering trip generation, distribution modal split, public transport assignment and capacity restrained highway assignment. The model iterated until the supply/demand equilibrium was achieved. It covered the whole county of Gloucestershire, with more detail in the twin conurbations of Cheltenham and Gloucester. 23 zones were designated as potential areas for new development. Matrices and tripends were obtained using a combination of the census data and TEMPRO, the national tripend model, as well as an existing SATURN model of the area. Mode choice coefficients were taken from PDC’s extensive library and calibrated using census data and the county’s household interview statistics.

A total of eight scenarios for the forecast year of 2026 were tested, covering four land use options for development and two overall levels of development. The model was able to differentiate between strategies on the basis of such variables as mode split and congestion levels in and around Cheltenham and Gloucester. It was also able to demonstrate trends associated with enhancing public transport services.

Gloucestershire Major Scheme Bid

Client: Gloucestershire County Council
Date: 2005

This project was undertaken in conjunction with Halcrow Group who is Gloucestershire County Councils term consultants. The brief involved building a multi modal model of transport in Gloucestershire which would be able to forecast demand for a new park and ride site at Elmbridge court adjacent to a proposed new parkway railway station.

The work involved building a Visual-tm model of demand which drew upon an existing SATURN highway network model. A public transport network was built in Visual-tm which was connected to the SATURN model to ensure consistent speeds. Trip generation, distribution, mode choice and public transport assignment models were calibrated and set up to iterate until the transport supply/demand had converged to equilibrium. This model was then used to forecast demand for 2011 and 2026.

Outputs were taken from the model for input into TUBA for economic appraisal. Forecasts were produced for both the major scheme and a low cost alternative. TUBA was run to produce a cost benefit ratio and outputs were used for the major scheme bid document. This bid has been presented to central government and the client is awaiting evaluation.

Truro Major Scheme Bid and Multi Mode Modelling

Client: Cornwall County Council
Date: 2005

This project was conducted in conjunction with Mouchel Parkman to develop a multi mode model and use it to help design and appraise a transport strategy for Truro so as to support their major scheme bid for funds. The strategy involved a pair of park and ride sites feeding the city centre, major highway and junction improvements, new development sites, bus services and demand management measures so as to provide transport into Truro well into the future. We developed a multi mode model integrated with the County’s SATURN model of Truro so as to investigate alternative land use and transport measures for 2011 and 2026. The model coefficients were obtained from a stated preference survey of 300 car drivers, which we undertook for the County.

The model forecasts were used to help design the transport measures including the park and ride system. The revenue forecasts were used to assess whether the scheme would be self funding and make a profit. The forecasts were also used for appraisal and to make the case for funding it.

The County also commissioned us to develop a parking model to forecast the demand and revenue streams from parking so as to investigate use of the long stay, short stay, on-street and non-residential parking stock with or without the park and ride. The revenue streams were returned to different organisations so there was a need to balance growth in parking revenue, with who gets it, who funds the park and ride and which parking should be converted from long to short stay (or vice versa). The work is nearing completion.

For more projects see our website www.peter-davidson.com.